1 October 2026
A new study by Forschungszentrum Jülich outlines pathways to a greenhouse gas-neutral, resilient, and competitive energy system. It highlights the importance of European cooperation and a considered approach to new dependencies.
Europe can become greenhouse gas-neutral by 2050 while significantly reducing its reliance on imported fossil fuels. To achieve this, it must significantly increase its electricity generation from renewable sources, further develop its cross-border energy infrastructure, and secure new supply chains. These points are highlighted in the study “Breaking Free From Dependencies?”, which Forschungszentrum Jülich is presenting today at the Representation of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia in Brussels.
The study by Jülich Systems Analysis compares three development pathways: “Business as usual” (BAU) is a hypothetical baseline scenario that excludes changes driven by climate policy. “Net zero 2070” postpones the achievement of greenhouse gas neutrality until 2070. “Net zero” describes an accelerated transition, with greenhouse gas neutrality being achieved by 2050. These scenarios are not predictions, but illustrate the potential consequences of different decisions.
The message is nuanced: the transformation can make Europe less dependent on oil and gas and less vulnerable to international energy price shocks. However, complete independence is neither realistic nor necessary. Old dependencies can be partly replaced by new ones – for example, in the case of raw materials, technologies, and financing. It is therefore crucial to approach these strategically and strengthen Europe’s systemically important resources.
In the “net zero” scenario, wind and solar energy dominate electricity generation, which increases significantly. In this scenario, not only does electricity supply households, industry, and transport, but a large proportion is also used to produce hydrogen and synthetic fuels. Electricity therefore takes on the role of a basic energy currency, even supplying sectors that cannot be directly electrified with greenhouse gas-neutral energy.
To this end, generation facilities, grids, storage systems, and electrolyzer capacity must be significantly expanded. Rapid licensing processes and reliable, attractive investment conditions are also necessary.
As fossil fuel consumption declines, so too does expenditure on energy imports – falling from around € 240 billion per year in the BAU scenario to around € 26 billion in the “net zero” scenario.
This difference does not translate into equivalent savings, as Europe must instead invest in its own energy supply. However, it does illustrate a shift in economic dependence, with money flowing less into ongoing fossil fuel imports and more into European facilities and infrastructure.
At the same time, Europe becomes less susceptible to international price spikes. If oil and gas prices both rise by 50 %, the annual system costs in the BAU scenario increase by around 38 %. In the “net zero” scenario, the increase is less than 4 %.
Closer integration between European energy regions makes the system more robust. During a modelled three-week period of low wind and low sunshine, less affected areas can provide support via the European electricity grid. Storage systems and flexible generation complement the energy supply.
The results show that cross-border grids integrated across multiple energy carriers (such as electricity, hydrogen, and synthetic fuels) provide important protection against regional bottlenecks. Furthermore, guaranteed capacity, storage, and flexible conversion technologies are required to address Europe-wide supply shortages.
Europe can either produce hydrogen and energy carriers derived from hydrogen itself or import them. The most economically favourable combination depends largely on the financing costs of European projects and future import prices.
The study recommends considering production, imports, and infrastructure together, rather than aiming for complete self-sufficiency or a fixed import quota.
In addition to steel, cement, and copper, a greenhouse gas-neutral energy system requires many other raw materials, such as lithium, silicon, and rare earth metals. Europe remains heavily dependent on imports for critical raw materials.
While the energy transition is not the cause of this dependence, it may exacerbate it. Therefore, diversified supply chains, recycling, material efficiency, European processing capacities, and a steady expansion over time will become central components of energy and industrial policy.
In all the scenarios examined, the European economy grows. However, during the transition, gross domestic product occasionally grows at a slower rate than in the hypothetical BAU path. In the “net zero” scenario, the gap is widest in the mid-2030s, but then narrows significantly. In the delayed scenario, the strain persists for longer, extending beyond 2050.
Delaying the transition does not, therefore, avoid its costs. It simply postpones investments and adjustments, prolonging the period of economic strain, and leaving some restructuring necessary after 2050. The extent of the economic impact depends largely on policy design, government revenue allocation, and the adaptability of businesses and labour markets.
Europe can build a reliable, greenhouse gas-neutral, and economically viable energy system. However, this will not lead to complete independence; fossil fuel imports will be partially replaced by an initial need for capital, infrastructure, technologies, and raw materials. These new dependencies are of a different nature, however, and can be shaped more effectively through European production, the circular economy, diversified supply chains, and cross-border cooperation.
The strategic question is therefore not whether Europe will be dependent. What matters more is the resources and partners upon which it depends, how risks are distributed, and where it builds up and expands its own capabilities. An integrated European energy system can combine regional strengths, increase resilience to crises, and support competitiveness.
The study will be presented as part of the European symposium “Squaring the Circle: The Future of the EU Energy System – Net-Zero, Resilient & Competitive?” at the Representation of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia in Brussels, where experts from European institutions, research organizations, and industry will discuss the political and economic implications of the findings.
“Our study shows that the energy transition will not simply eliminate Europe’s dependencies, but will fundamentally transform them. Europe can significantly reduce its reliance on oil and gas and better protect itself against price shocks. To achieve this, however, we must consistently expand grids, storage facilities, and renewable energy sources, while also proactively shaping new dependencies on raw materials and technologies.”
Prof. Jochen Linßen, co-author of the study and acting director of the Institute of Climate and Energy Systems – Jülich Systems Analysis at Forschungszentrum Jülich
“’Squaring the Circle’ is about the transformation of the European energy supply and distribution system, whereby the seemingly contradicting boundary conditions of affordability, security and resilience need to be reconciled, in a manner that is climate friendly and societally fair. The latest study by Jülich Systems Analysis explores feasible pathways, reduction of dependencies and reliable supply chains"
Prof. Pieter Jansens, member of the Board of Directors Forschungszentrum Jülich responsible for Energy, Climate & Bioeconomy since 2023
Study
„Breaking Free From Dependencies? Energy, Materials and Economy in Europe’s Net-Zero Transition“
Acting Director of Juelich Systems Analysis (ICE-2) Department Head "Integrated Infrastructure"
