Transportation Scenarios
About
The Transport Scenarios team works on scientific issues relating to the development of passenger and freight transport. To this end, model-based analyses take up the status quo in the transport sector based on traffic statistics and energy balance correlations and examine a broad spectrum of possible developments in the form of scenarios. Targets for a significant reduction in environmental impacts and current trends such as electric mobility, autonomous and connected driving and shared mobility are taken into account. The parameterization of the developed models is supported by in-depth analyses of the decision-making behaviour of mobile people. The spatially and temporally high-resolution analyses are used to develop implementation strategies for a greenhouse gas-free, future-oriented transport sector in a regional to European context.
Research Topics
The Research group Transport Scenarios addresses the key issues in this context and investigates the effects of current trends in the light of the challenges mentioned. Our model-based analyses with ETHOS.Transport take up the status quo in the transport sector, for example on the basis of traffic statistics data and energy balance correlations, and examine a broad spectrum of possible developments up to the year 2050 in the form of scenarios. The parameterization of the models developed for this purpose is supported by an in-depth analysis and modelling of the decision-making behaviour of mobile people. Our Mobility Demand Simulator ETHOS.MO|DE is used for this purpose.
TEAM MEMBERS
research fields
Techno-Economic Optimization
Key features of our techno-economic optimization model ETHOS.Transport are a high spatial and temporal resolution of the observations as well as a high coverage of the relevant transport modes and drive options including the associated supply infrastructures for fuels and electricity. In this way, spatial differences in traffic patterns, including mobility behavior, can be taken into account and shift effects in the modal split and between fuel options can be investigated. With the help of the connection to the higher-level energy system model ETHOS.NESTOR, coupling effects in the provision and use of energy sources can also be mapped and evaluated.
Activity-Based Decision Models
Modeling the decision-making behavior of mobile people under the boundary conditions of social developments is of central importance as the basis for determining transport demand. Continuous change processes, such as demographic change, stand alongside possible disruptive events that can be triggered, for example, by technical developments or dynamic changes in environmental factors. In our ETHOS.MO|DE modeling tool, activity-based decision models are used to depict short and long-term mobility behavior with the help of discrete choice modeling. As a result, transport demand and the modal split of the modes of transport are provided. The decision-making behavior is related to the techno-economic characteristics of the transport systems, for example in terms of the costs of the means of transport and the availability of refueling and charging options.
Transport Scenarios
By linking the aforementioned ETHOS.MO|DE, ETHOS.Transport and ETHOS.NESTOR models, interactions between mobility behavior and the techno-economic performance of transport systems as well as between the transport sector and other areas of the energy system can be mapped. In this way, it is possible to work on particularly comprehensive transport-related issues, ranging from technical or techno-economic analyses to the evaluation of political measures and the identification of cost-optimal transformation paths for the implementation of greenhouse gas-free transport systems.
Last Modified: 23.09.2024