Energy oriented Centre of Excellence
Recently, the focus of research has been expanded to the realm of energy meteorology.
In practice, the objective is an efficient and cost-optimised integration of the weather dependent energy suppliers solar and wind. The ever growing share of renewable energies calls for increasingly reliable and comprehensive power forecasts, mainly to secure the reliability of the electrical grid and realizations on the stock market. The highest potential for improvement of such forecasts lies in the Numerical Weather Prediction.
Within project collaboration (EoCoE), the predictability of extreme error events in the day-ahead forecast is investigated. Probabilistic weather predictions in form of ensembles are developed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, where each ensemble member is a different model's realization. The distinctive feature here is the ensemble's size. While operational weather centers are restricted to approx. 50 members, the benefit of a drastic increase to 1000 members is investigated.
Moreover, the potential benefit of this ultra large ensemble is analyzed in the field on nonlinear data assimilation (Particle Filter) and ensemble generation via Big Data Analytics. The demanding computational effort is overcome by utilizing Jülich's supercomputer JUQUEEN.