Breaking Free from Dependencies? Energy, Materials and Economy in Europe's Net Zero-Transition
Europe can become greenhouse gas neutral by 2050 while significantly reducing its dependence on fossil energy imports. To achieve this, it must massively expand its renewable power generation, further develop its energy infrastructures across borders, and secure new supply chains. These are the findings of the study "Breaking Free From Dependencies?" by Jülich Systems Analysis.
The study compares three development pathways: a hypothetical ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, greenhouse gas neutrality postponed until 2070, and the transition to greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050. The scenarios are not forecasts but illustrate the possible consequences of different decisions. In the Net Zero scenario, spending on energy imports falls from around 240 billion euros to roughly 26 billion euros per year. This does not represent savings of the same amount, as Europe must instead invest in its own energy supply. At the same time, its vulnerability to international oil and gas price spikes decreases.
The transformation can make Europe more independent of oil and gas and less vulnerable to international energy price shocks. However, complete independence is neither realistic nor necessary. Old dependencies are partially replaced by new ones – for example in raw materials, technologies and financing. It is crucial to make them strategic and to strengthen systemically important resources in Europe.
The people behind the study
Dr.-Ing. Thomas SchöbHead of Research Group „Energy Systems Transformation“Building 03.2 / Room 2005+49 2461/61-3079
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jochen LinßenActing Director of Juelich Systems Analysis (ICE-2)
Department Head "Integrated Infrastructure"Building 03.2 / Room 228+49 2461/61-3076
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Last Modified: 01.10.2026