Impact of Global Change on Water Resources – IBG-3 Provides Scientific Foundations
Global change is increasingly affecting water resources and their usage, a trend that is already noticeable in our region. Longer and more frequent drought periods pose growing challenges not only for public water supply but also for other water users. In North Rhine-Westphalia, groundwater reservoirs were unable to replenish as usual through precipitation during the comparatively dry decade from 2011 to 2020. This led to declining groundwater levels in many parts of the state. Particularly during the summer months, conflicts over water usage are increasing, resulting in rising pressure on available resources—evident, for example, in the growing importance of irrigation in agriculture. The early identification and resolution of such conflicts require well-founded strategies and an objective data basis.
The IBG-3 Agrosphere Institute plays a crucial role in providing this data basis through its water balance models. These models capture the complex, non-linear interactions within the water cycle and enable detailed hydrological analyses. Their results contribute to local, regional, and nationwide studies and serve as a foundation for strategic planning and policy-making.
One example is the mGROWA water balance model, which is standardly used in North Rhine-Westphalia for water-related legal procedures. It provides reliable data on regionally differentiated groundwater recharge. Water suppliers can use it to determine the long-term sustainable availability of groundwater before expanding their well systems. Additionally, the increasing irrigation demand in agriculture can be quantified based on the model results. The state government of North Rhine-Westphalia provides this data as open data through various platforms (see further links below).
Beyond current water management, the models developed by IBG-3 also allow for forecasting the impacts of global change. They help to define the limits of sustainable water use and predict future conflicts over water resources. In some regions of Germany, it has already become evident that exceeding these limits leads to intensified conflicts between agriculture and public water supply, putting excessive strain on groundwater resources. To assess such developments at an early stage, IBG-3 models are coupled with climate models. This enables the analysis of potential risks for water management and the derivation of suitable measures to mitigate negative effects.
As part of the WADKlim project, IBG-3 conducted a stress test to evaluate the aforementioned challenges. Initiated and funded by the German Environment Agency (UBA), this project provides key insights and concrete recommendations for policymakers and other stakeholders involved in the complex interplay between global change, natural water resources, and their usage.
Further Information and Data:
Contact
Dr. Frank Herrmann
Researcher in water balance modelling
- Institute of Bio- and Geosciences (IBG)
- Agrosphere (IBG-3)
Room 3048
Dr. Marie-Isabel Ludwig
Wissenstransfer und Kommunikation
- Institute of Bio- and Geosciences (IBG)
- Agrosphere (IBG-3)
Room 3037