Energy transition: "Technically feasible, economically sensible"

The energy transition is underway, though it is not always progressing smoothly. Some feel it is not happening fast enough, particularly in light of the consequences of the Iran war, while others warn against misguided investments. In this interview, Prof. Jochen Linßen, an expert in systems analysis, explains what really matters.

Prof. Linßen, you and your team study how Germany and Europe can transform their energy systems. What is the exact nature of your work?

We use complex models to calculate possible future scenarios. Put simply, our model suite, ETHOS, works like a “what-if machine”. It allows us to mathematically map Germany’s energy system – from electricity and heating networks to industrial processes and global energy flows. Based on this, ETHOS calculates how various political, technical, and societal decisions could affect the future of energy. The resulting scenarios do not predict the future, but they do show which pathways are realistic and sensible. This is precisely what makes scenario studies an indispensable tool for an evidence-based, responsible energy and climate policy. They provide guidance and highlight risks relating to energy security, economic viability, and climate protection.

How do your scenario studies assess the energy transition?

Our model analyses and research findings clearly show that the transformation of the energy system is technically feasible and can be achieved in an economically viable way. The natural gas crisis of 2022 and the current conflict in the Middle East, which has led to temporary closures of the Strait of Hormuz, have powerfully demonstrated how vulnerable Germany, Europe, and the world are to disruptions in fossil fuel import routes. Looking ahead, it is important to make the energy system more resilient. It is therefore crucial that we set the right course early on. There is not just one way to do this: Our models and scenarios show a whole range of realistic options and highlight which steps are crucial today and in the coming years for Germany to achieve its targets.

Can you give a specific example?

If, for example, the rapid and targeted expansion of wind and solar power is successful, transport and buildings will also benefit – because renewable electricity can be used directly and intelligently for electric vehicles and heat pumps through a process known as sector coupling. This significantly reduces the demand for oil and natural gas and lessens dependency on individual countries. Such interrelationships illustrate how strongly today’s decisions influence tomorrow’s energy system and energy security.

What does this mean for decision-makers in politics and business?

It offers a major opportunity. Those who consistently utilize research and development options now can bring innovations from the prototype stage to widespread application more quickly. The transition can thus be actively shaped while – crucially – strengthening both competitiveness and climate protection. This helps us avoid having to respond under greater pressure later on.

So would it be a mistake to abandon ambitious climate action?

It would be counterproductive both economically and socially. From an economic perspective, it has long been clear that the costs of increasing climate damage will exceed the investment needed for consistent climate protection in the long term. Moreover, climate protection has long been part of modern value creation. However, potential competitive disadvantages for industry in global trade must be cushioned by political and economic measures such as support programmes for climate-friendly production processes or reliable global CO₂ prices.

Does that mean things always have to be considered in context?

Exactly. It is crucial to consider competitiveness, climate and environmental protection, and resilience all together. Our models have clearly shown that a net-zero energy system is significantly less vulnerable and increases the geostrategic security of the energy supply. Greater resilience is not a by-product, but an integral part of the transformation. However, the next stages require significantly more ambitious measures, supported by technological innovation, new business models, and consistent political implementation.

Prof. Linßen, thank you for your time!

This text is taken from the 1/26 issue of effzett. Interview: Anna Tipping

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